《當今天文學》雜誌：太陽活動減弱或許會帶來2030年開始的冰河時期
https://astronomynow.com/2015/07/17/diminishing-solar-activity-may-bring-new-ice-age-by-2030/
Diminishing solar activity may bring new Ice Age by 2030
太陽活動減弱或許會帶來2030年開始的冰河時期
17 July 2015
The arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030—2040. These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova (Northumbria University) during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno in Wales by the international group of scientists, which also includes Dr Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor Simon Shepherd of Bradford University and Dr Sergei Zharkov of Hull University.
有科學家預期2030～2040年全球將出現與17世紀和18世紀初「小冰河期」類似的極寒天氣。全球將陷入冰期。這些結論是由諾森比亞大學（Northumbria University）的瓦倫蒂娜·扎爾科娃（V. Zharkova）教授在威爾士（Wales）蘭迪德諾（Llandudno）舉行的全國天文學會議上提出的。該會議由國際科學家小組主持，該小組還包括斯科貝爾岑核物理研究所（Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics）、莫斯科國立大學物理學院（Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University）的博士海倫·波波娃（Helen Popova），和布拉德福德大學（Bradford University）的西蒙·謝潑德（Simon Shepherd）教授和赫爾大學（Hull University）的謝爾蓋·扎爾科夫（Sergei Zharkov）博士。
It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, of the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. The study of changes in the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface has a cyclic structure vary in every 11 years that is also imposed on the Earth environment as the analysis of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other isotopes in glaciers and in the trees showed.
科學家已經知道太陽有自己的磁場，其振幅和空間結構隨時間而改變。太陽大氣中強磁場的形成和衰減導致太陽電磁輻射的變化、太陽等離子流強度的變化以及太陽表面黑子數量的變化。太陽表面黑子數量的變化具有週期性結構。對冰川和樹木中的碳-14、鈹-10和其他同位素的分析顯示，太陽黑子數量每11年變化一次，對地球環境產生影響。
There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 90-year cycle are the best known of them. The 11-year cycle appears as a cyclical reduction in stains on the surface of the Sun every 11 years. Its 90-year variation is associated with periodic reduction in the number of spots in the 11-year cycle in the 50-25%. In 17th century, though, there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots. Analysis of solar radiation showed that its maxima and minima almost coincide with the maxima and minima in the number of spots.
太陽活動有多個週期，其中最為人所知的是11年週期和90年週期。11年的週期表現為每11年太陽表面黑子的週期性減少。其90年的變化與11年周期中黑子數量的50-25%的週期性減少有關。然而，在17世紀，太陽活動出現了相當多年的減弱，稱為蒙德極小期，大約從1645年持續到1700年。這段時期，太陽黑子數量僅有50個左右，而不是通常的4萬至5萬個。對太陽輻射的分析表明，17世紀地球氣溫的最大值和最小值幾乎與太陽黑子數量的最大值和最小值相重合。
In the current study published in 3 peer-reviewed papers the researchers analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms for three cycles of solar activity (21-23) by applying the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows to reduce the data dimensionality and noise and to identify waves with the largest contribution to the observational data. This method can be compared with the decomposition of white light on the rainbow prism detecting the waves of different frequencies. As a result, the researchers developed a new method of analysis, which helped to uncover that the magnetic waves in the Sun are generated in pairs, with the main pair covering 40% of variance of the data (Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS). The principal component pair is responsible for the variations of a dipole field of the Sun, which is changing its polarity from pole to pole during 11-year solar activity.
在發表於三篇同行評審論文研究中，研究人員用可以減少資料維數和噪聲、識別對觀測資料貢獻最大的磁波段的「主成分分析」，分析了三個太陽活動週期（21-23）的全盤磁圖的總背景磁場。此方法可以與彩虹棱鏡上白光的分解檢測不同頻率的波進行比較。因此，研究人員開發了一種新的分析方法，有助於揭示太陽中的磁波是成對產生的，其中主磁波對覆蓋了數據方差的40%（Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS）。主磁波對造成了太陽偶極場的變化。太陽偶極場在11年的太陽週期中，其極性會從一極變為另一極。
The magnetic waves travel from the opposite hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere (odd cycles) or to Southern Hemisphere (even cycles), with the phase shift between the waves increasing with a cycle number. The waves interacts with each other in the hemisphere where they have maximum (Northern for odd cycles and Southern for even ones). These two components are assumed to originate in two different layers in the solar interior (inner and outer) with close, but not equal, frequencies and a variable phase shift (Popova et al, 2013, AnnGeo).
磁波從相反的半球傳播到北半球（奇數週期）或南半球（偶數週期），磁波之間的相移隨著週期數的增加而增加。磁波在其最大週期所在的半球互相作用（北半球為奇數週期，南半球為偶數週期）。這兩個成分被認為起源於太陽內部的兩個不同層（內層和外層），它們的頻率接近但不相等，並且具有可變的相移（Popova et al, 2013, AnnGeo）。
The scientists managed to derive the analytical formula, describing the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers, the original proxy of solar activity, if one used the modulus of the summary curve (Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ). By using this formula the scientists made first the prediction of magnetic activity in the cycle 24, which gave 97% accuracy in comparison with the principal components derived from the observations.
科學家推導出了描述這兩個磁波演變的解析方程，併計算出了太陽黑子數量演變的總曲線。總曲線與太陽黑子數量相關（Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ）。用這個方程，科學家首次對第24週期的太陽磁場活動進行了預測，與從觀測中得出的主要成分相比，準確率達到了 97%。
Inspired by this success, the authors extended the prediction of these two magnetic waves to the next two cycle 25 and 26 and discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26 and thus have little chance of interacting and producing sunspot numbers. This will lead to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2030—2040 comparable with the conditions existed previously during the Maunder minimum in the XVII century when there were only about 50-70 sunspots observed instead of the usual 40-50 thousand expected.
受到這一成功的啟發，作者將這兩股磁波的預測延伸到接下來的第25和第26個週期，並發現在第26個週期，這兩股磁波將完全分離到相反的兩個半球，因此幾乎沒有機會相互作用並產生大量太陽黑子。這將導致2030年至2040年間太陽活動的急劇下降，與17世紀蒙德極小期的情況相當。當時僅觀測到大約50-70個太陽黑子，而不是通常預期的40-50,000個。
The new reduction of the solar activity will lead to reduction of the solar irradiance by 3W/m2 according to Lean (1997). This resulted in significant cooling of Earth and very severe winters and cold summers. “Several studies have shown that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest phase of global cooling, which was called “the Little Ice Age”. During this period there were very cold winters in Europe and North America. In the days of the Maunder minimum the water in the river Thames and the Danube River froze, the Moscow River was covered by ice every six months, snow lay on some plains year round and Greenland was covered by glaciers” – says Dr Helen Popova, who developed a unique physical-mathematical model of the evolution of the magnetic activity of the Sun and used it to gain the patterns of occurrence of global minima of solar activity and gave them a physical interpretation.
根據利安（Lean 1997）的說法，太陽活動的減少將導致太陽輻照度減少3W/m^2。這導致地球顯著變冷，冬季極其嚴酷，夏季寒冷。 「多項研究表明，蒙德極小期與全球變冷的最冷階段相吻合。後者被稱為『小冰河期』。在此期間，歐洲和北美的冬天非常寒冷。在蒙德極小期，泰晤士河和多瑙河的水結冰，莫斯科河每年六個月結冰，一些平原終年積雪，格陵蘭島被冰川覆蓋。」—— 海倫·波波娃博士說。她開發了一個獨特的太陽磁活動演變數理模型，並利用該模型獲得了全球太陽活動極小值的產生模式並對其進行了物理解釋。
If the similar reduction will be observed during the upcoming Maunder minimum this can lead to the similar cooling of the Earth atmosphere. According to Dr Helen Popova, if the existing theories about the impact of solar activity on the climate are true, then this minimum will lead to a significant cooling, similar to the one occurred during the Maunder minimum.
如果在即將到來的蒙德極小期觀察到類似的黑子減少，這可能會導致地球大氣層出現類似的變冷。海倫·波波娃博士表示，如果現有的關於太陽活動對氣候影響的理論是正確的，那麼這次極小期將導致顯著的降溫，類似於歷史上蒙德極小期期間的地球冰期……
決不再做奴隸 25-01-16
Diminishing solar activity may bring new Ice Age by 2030
太陽活動減弱或許會帶來2030年開始的冰河時期
17 July 2015
The arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030—2040. These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova (Northumbria University) during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno in Wales by the international group of scientists, which also includes Dr Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor Simon Shepherd of Bradford University and Dr Sergei Zharkov of Hull University.
有科學家預期2030～2040年全球將出現與17世紀和18世紀初「小冰河期」類似的極寒天氣。全球將陷入冰期。這些結論是由諾森比亞大學（Northumbria University）的瓦倫蒂娜·扎爾科娃（V. Zharkova）教授在威爾士（Wales）蘭迪德諾（Llandudno）舉行的全國天文學會議上提出的。該會議由國際科學家小組主持，該小組還包括斯科貝爾岑核物理研究所（Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics）、莫斯科國立大學物理學院（Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University）的博士海倫·波波娃（Helen Popova），和布拉德福德大學（Bradford University）的西蒙·謝潑德（Simon Shepherd）教授和赫爾大學（Hull University）的謝爾蓋·扎爾科夫（Sergei Zharkov）博士。
It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, of the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. The study of changes in the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface has a cyclic structure vary in every 11 years that is also imposed on the Earth environment as the analysis of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other isotopes in glaciers and in the trees showed.
科學家已經知道太陽有自己的磁場，其振幅和空間結構隨時間而改變。太陽大氣中強磁場的形成和衰減導致太陽電磁輻射的變化、太陽等離子流強度的變化以及太陽表面黑子數量的變化。太陽表面黑子數量的變化具有週期性結構。對冰川和樹木中的碳-14、鈹-10和其他同位素的分析顯示，太陽黑子數量每11年變化一次，對地球環境產生影響。
There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 90-year cycle are the best known of them. The 11-year cycle appears as a cyclical reduction in stains on the surface of the Sun every 11 years. Its 90-year variation is associated with periodic reduction in the number of spots in the 11-year cycle in the 50-25%. In 17th century, though, there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots. Analysis of solar radiation showed that its maxima and minima almost coincide with the maxima and minima in the number of spots.
太陽活動有多個週期，其中最為人所知的是11年週期和90年週期。11年的週期表現為每11年太陽表面黑子的週期性減少。其90年的變化與11年周期中黑子數量的50-25%的週期性減少有關。然而，在17世紀，太陽活動出現了相當多年的減弱，稱為蒙德極小期，大約從1645年持續到1700年。這段時期，太陽黑子數量僅有50個左右，而不是通常的4萬至5萬個。對太陽輻射的分析表明，17世紀地球氣溫的最大值和最小值幾乎與太陽黑子數量的最大值和最小值相重合。
In the current study published in 3 peer-reviewed papers the researchers analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms for three cycles of solar activity (21-23) by applying the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows to reduce the data dimensionality and noise and to identify waves with the largest contribution to the observational data. This method can be compared with the decomposition of white light on the rainbow prism detecting the waves of different frequencies. As a result, the researchers developed a new method of analysis, which helped to uncover that the magnetic waves in the Sun are generated in pairs, with the main pair covering 40% of variance of the data (Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS). The principal component pair is responsible for the variations of a dipole field of the Sun, which is changing its polarity from pole to pole during 11-year solar activity.
在發表於三篇同行評審論文研究中，研究人員用可以減少資料維數和噪聲、識別對觀測資料貢獻最大的磁波段的「主成分分析」，分析了三個太陽活動週期（21-23）的全盤磁圖的總背景磁場。此方法可以與彩虹棱鏡上白光的分解檢測不同頻率的波進行比較。因此，研究人員開發了一種新的分析方法，有助於揭示太陽中的磁波是成對產生的，其中主磁波對覆蓋了數據方差的40%（Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS）。主磁波對造成了太陽偶極場的變化。太陽偶極場在11年的太陽週期中，其極性會從一極變為另一極。
The magnetic waves travel from the opposite hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere (odd cycles) or to Southern Hemisphere (even cycles), with the phase shift between the waves increasing with a cycle number. The waves interacts with each other in the hemisphere where they have maximum (Northern for odd cycles and Southern for even ones). These two components are assumed to originate in two different layers in the solar interior (inner and outer) with close, but not equal, frequencies and a variable phase shift (Popova et al, 2013, AnnGeo).
磁波從相反的半球傳播到北半球（奇數週期）或南半球（偶數週期），磁波之間的相移隨著週期數的增加而增加。磁波在其最大週期所在的半球互相作用（北半球為奇數週期，南半球為偶數週期）。這兩個成分被認為起源於太陽內部的兩個不同層（內層和外層），它們的頻率接近但不相等，並且具有可變的相移（Popova et al, 2013, AnnGeo）。
The scientists managed to derive the analytical formula, describing the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers, the original proxy of solar activity, if one used the modulus of the summary curve (Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ). By using this formula the scientists made first the prediction of magnetic activity in the cycle 24, which gave 97% accuracy in comparison with the principal components derived from the observations.
科學家推導出了描述這兩個磁波演變的解析方程，併計算出了太陽黑子數量演變的總曲線。總曲線與太陽黑子數量相關（Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ）。用這個方程，科學家首次對第24週期的太陽磁場活動進行了預測，與從觀測中得出的主要成分相比，準確率達到了 97%。
Inspired by this success, the authors extended the prediction of these two magnetic waves to the next two cycle 25 and 26 and discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26 and thus have little chance of interacting and producing sunspot numbers. This will lead to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2030—2040 comparable with the conditions existed previously during the Maunder minimum in the XVII century when there were only about 50-70 sunspots observed instead of the usual 40-50 thousand expected.
受到這一成功的啟發，作者將這兩股磁波的預測延伸到接下來的第25和第26個週期，並發現在第26個週期，這兩股磁波將完全分離到相反的兩個半球，因此幾乎沒有機會相互作用並產生大量太陽黑子。這將導致2030年至2040年間太陽活動的急劇下降，與17世紀蒙德極小期的情況相當。當時僅觀測到大約50-70個太陽黑子，而不是通常預期的40-50,000個。
The new reduction of the solar activity will lead to reduction of the solar irradiance by 3W/m2 according to Lean (1997). This resulted in significant cooling of Earth and very severe winters and cold summers. “Several studies have shown that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest phase of global cooling, which was called “the Little Ice Age”. During this period there were very cold winters in Europe and North America. In the days of the Maunder minimum the water in the river Thames and the Danube River froze, the Moscow River was covered by ice every six months, snow lay on some plains year round and Greenland was covered by glaciers” – says Dr Helen Popova, who developed a unique physical-mathematical model of the evolution of the magnetic activity of the Sun and used it to gain the patterns of occurrence of global minima of solar activity and gave them a physical interpretation.
根據利安（Lean 1997）的說法，太陽活動的減少將導致太陽輻照度減少3W/m^2。這導致地球顯著變冷，冬季極其嚴酷，夏季寒冷。 「多項研究表明，蒙德極小期與全球變冷的最冷階段相吻合。後者被稱為『小冰河期』。在此期間，歐洲和北美的冬天非常寒冷。在蒙德極小期，泰晤士河和多瑙河的水結冰，莫斯科河每年六個月結冰，一些平原終年積雪，格陵蘭島被冰川覆蓋。」—— 海倫·波波娃博士說。她開發了一個獨特的太陽磁活動演變數理模型，並利用該模型獲得了全球太陽活動極小值的產生模式並對其進行了物理解釋。
If the similar reduction will be observed during the upcoming Maunder minimum this can lead to the similar cooling of the Earth atmosphere. According to Dr Helen Popova, if the existing theories about the impact of solar activity on the climate are true, then this minimum will lead to a significant cooling, similar to the one occurred during the Maunder minimum.
如果在即將到來的蒙德極小期觀察到類似的黑子減少，這可能會導致地球大氣層出現類似的變冷。海倫·波波娃博士表示，如果現有的關於太陽活動對氣候影響的理論是正確的，那麼這次極小期將導致顯著的降溫，類似於歷史上蒙德極小期期間的地球冰期……
決不再做奴隸 25-01-16
OP
決不再做奴隸
♩黎明來到 要光復 這香港 同行兒女 為正義 時代革命 祈求 民主與自由 萬世都不朽
However, only the time will show soon enough (within the next 5-15 years) if this will happen.
然而，只有時間才能最終證明這一點（未來 5-15 年內）。
“Given that our future minimum will last for at least three solar cycles, which is about 30 years, it is possible, that the lowering of the temperature will not be as deep as during the Maunder minimum. But we will have to examine it in detail. We keep in touch with climatologists from different countries. We plan to work in this direction”, Dr Helen Popova said.
「考慮到未來的太陽活動極小期將持續至少三個太陽週期，也就是大約30年，氣溫的降幅可能不會像經典的蒙德極小期那麼深。但我們必須詳細研究它。我們與不同國家的氣候學家保持聯繫。我們計劃朝這個方向努力」，海倫·波波娃博士說。
The notion that solar activity affects the climate, appeared long ago. It is known, for example, that a change in the total quantity of the electromagnetic radiation by only 1% can result in a noticeable change in the temperature distribution and air flow all over the Earth. Ultraviolet rays cause photochemical effect, which leads to the formation of ozone at the altitude of 30-40 km. The flow of ultraviolet rays increases sharply during chromospheric flares in the Sun. Ozone, which absorbs the Sun’s rays well enough, is being heated and it affects the air currents in the lower layers of the atmosphere and, consequently, the weather. Powerful emission of corpuscles, which can reach the Earth’s surface, arise periodically during the high solar activity. They can move in complex trajectories, causing aurorae, geomagnetic storms and disturbances of radio communication.
太陽活動影響氣候的觀點很早以前就出現了。例如，眾所周知，太陽電磁輻射總量僅發生1%的變化，就會導致整個地球的溫度分佈和氣流發生明顯變化。紫外線引起光化學作用，導致海拔30～40公里處形成臭氧。在太陽色球耀斑期間，紫外線流量急劇增加。臭氧能夠充分吸收太陽光線，因此被加熱，並影響大氣低層的氣流，進而影響天氣。在太陽活動高峰期，會週期性地出現強大的微粒輻射，這些微粒可以到達地球表面。它們可以沿著複雜的軌跡移動，造成極光、地磁暴和無線電通訊干擾。
By increasing the flow of particles in the lower atmospheric layers air flows of meridional direction enhance: warm currents from the south with even greater energy rush in the high latitudes and cold currents, carrying arctic air, penetrate deeper into the south. In addition, the solar activity affects the intensity of fluxes of galactic cosmic rays. The minimum activity streams become more intense, which also affects the chemical processes in the Earth’s atmosphere.
若低層大氣中的粒子流量增加，經向氣流增強：來自南方的暖氣流以更大的能量湧向高緯度地區，而攜帶北極空氣的冷氣流則深入南方。此外，太陽活動也影響銀河宇宙射線通量的強度。最低活動流變得更加強烈，這也影響了地球大氣中的化學過程。
The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. The increase in the volcanic activity comes after the Ice Age and it leads to the greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, what means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, increasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, reducing the clouds and making the atmosphere cool again. This process comes with some delay.
對南極氘的研究表明，過去40萬年間，曾發生過五次全球暖化和四次冰河期。冰河時期之後火山活動增多，導致了溫室氣體排放。太陽磁場增強，這意味著宇宙射線通量減少，從而增加了雲層數量並再次導致變暖。接下來是相反的過程，太陽磁場減弱，宇宙射線強度上升，導致雲層減少，大氣再次變冷。大氣再次變冷的過程會有一些延遲。
Dr Helen Popova responds cautiously, while speaking about the human influence on climate.
海倫·波波娃博士在談到人類對氣候的影響時做出了謹慎的回應。
“There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago. However, even if human activities influence the climate, we can say, that the Sun with the new minimum gives humanity more time or a second chance to reduce their industrial emissions and to prepare, when the Sun will return to normal activity”, Dr Helen Popova summarised.
「沒有有力的證據顯示全球暖化是由人類活動造成的。對南極氘的研究表明，過去40萬年間，曾發生過五次全球暖化和四次冰河期。大約6萬年前，人類首次出現在地球上。然而，即使人類活動影響氣候，我們仍然可以說，未來太陽活動進入一個新的極小期，為人類提供了更多時間和機會來減少工業排放，並為更遠未來的太陽活動恢復正常做好準備」，海倫·波波娃博士說。
更多...然而，只有時間才能最終證明這一點（未來 5-15 年內）。
“Given that our future minimum will last for at least three solar cycles, which is about 30 years, it is possible, that the lowering of the temperature will not be as deep as during the Maunder minimum. But we will have to examine it in detail. We keep in touch with climatologists from different countries. We plan to work in this direction”, Dr Helen Popova said.
「考慮到未來的太陽活動極小期將持續至少三個太陽週期，也就是大約30年，氣溫的降幅可能不會像經典的蒙德極小期那麼深。但我們必須詳細研究它。我們與不同國家的氣候學家保持聯繫。我們計劃朝這個方向努力」，海倫·波波娃博士說。
The notion that solar activity affects the climate, appeared long ago. It is known, for example, that a change in the total quantity of the electromagnetic radiation by only 1% can result in a noticeable change in the temperature distribution and air flow all over the Earth. Ultraviolet rays cause photochemical effect, which leads to the formation of ozone at the altitude of 30-40 km. The flow of ultraviolet rays increases sharply during chromospheric flares in the Sun. Ozone, which absorbs the Sun’s rays well enough, is being heated and it affects the air currents in the lower layers of the atmosphere and, consequently, the weather. Powerful emission of corpuscles, which can reach the Earth’s surface, arise periodically during the high solar activity. They can move in complex trajectories, causing aurorae, geomagnetic storms and disturbances of radio communication.
太陽活動影響氣候的觀點很早以前就出現了。例如，眾所周知，太陽電磁輻射總量僅發生1%的變化，就會導致整個地球的溫度分佈和氣流發生明顯變化。紫外線引起光化學作用，導致海拔30～40公里處形成臭氧。在太陽色球耀斑期間，紫外線流量急劇增加。臭氧能夠充分吸收太陽光線，因此被加熱，並影響大氣低層的氣流，進而影響天氣。在太陽活動高峰期，會週期性地出現強大的微粒輻射，這些微粒可以到達地球表面。它們可以沿著複雜的軌跡移動，造成極光、地磁暴和無線電通訊干擾。
By increasing the flow of particles in the lower atmospheric layers air flows of meridional direction enhance: warm currents from the south with even greater energy rush in the high latitudes and cold currents, carrying arctic air, penetrate deeper into the south. In addition, the solar activity affects the intensity of fluxes of galactic cosmic rays. The minimum activity streams become more intense, which also affects the chemical processes in the Earth’s atmosphere.
若低層大氣中的粒子流量增加，經向氣流增強：來自南方的暖氣流以更大的能量湧向高緯度地區，而攜帶北極空氣的冷氣流則深入南方。此外，太陽活動也影響銀河宇宙射線通量的強度。最低活動流變得更加強烈，這也影響了地球大氣中的化學過程。
The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. The increase in the volcanic activity comes after the Ice Age and it leads to the greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, what means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, increasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, reducing the clouds and making the atmosphere cool again. This process comes with some delay.
對南極氘的研究表明，過去40萬年間，曾發生過五次全球暖化和四次冰河期。冰河時期之後火山活動增多，導致了溫室氣體排放。太陽磁場增強，這意味著宇宙射線通量減少，從而增加了雲層數量並再次導致變暖。接下來是相反的過程，太陽磁場減弱，宇宙射線強度上升，導致雲層減少，大氣再次變冷。大氣再次變冷的過程會有一些延遲。
Dr Helen Popova responds cautiously, while speaking about the human influence on climate.
海倫·波波娃博士在談到人類對氣候的影響時做出了謹慎的回應。
“There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago. However, even if human activities influence the climate, we can say, that the Sun with the new minimum gives humanity more time or a second chance to reduce their industrial emissions and to prepare, when the Sun will return to normal activity”, Dr Helen Popova summarised.
「沒有有力的證據顯示全球暖化是由人類活動造成的。對南極氘的研究表明，過去40萬年間，曾發生過五次全球暖化和四次冰河期。大約6萬年前，人類首次出現在地球上。然而，即使人類活動影響氣候，我們仍然可以說，未來太陽活動進入一個新的極小期，為人類提供了更多時間和機會來減少工業排放，並為更遠未來的太陽活動恢復正常做好準備」，海倫·波波娃博士說。
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25-01-17
